Population Projections across CYMH Service Areas, 2016-2041

Population Projections

Recently the Ministry of Finance updated its population projections for Ontario, 2016 – 2041. These population projections are organized into 4 different datasets:

  • projections for the whole province
  • projections for each census division
  • projections for each Local Health Integration Network (LHIN)
  • projections for each Ministry of Children and Youth Services’ Service Delivery Division (SDD) region

Each dataset includes population projections by age and gender.

From the population projections for each census division (CD), we have derived the population projections (summing projections for Males and Females) for each of the CYMH Service Areas, 2016 – 2041.

The result of our work is presented in one spreadsheet, that includes six worksheets:

  • Ages x Year (Base): Population projections for each Age between 0 – 24 years by Year
  • 0-18 x Year: Population projections for the total number of 0 – 18 year old children and youth by Year
  • 0-24 x Year: Population projections for the total number of 0 – 24 year old children and youth by Year
  • 0-18 x Age Group x Year: Population projections for children and youth grouped into 5 year spans (0-4, 5-9, 10-14, and 15-18 years old)
  • 0-24 x Age Group x Year: Population projections for children and youth grouped into 5 year spans (0-4, 5-9, 10-14, 15-19, and 20-24 years old)
  • 0-24 x Life Cycle x Year: Population projections for children and youth grouped into two Life Cycle spans (Child, 0 – 14 years old and Youth, 15 – 24 years old)

Population Density

We have also calculated the land area of the individual CYMH Service Areas in order to derive their respective projected population densities. We will soon provide a speadsheet with these projections as well.

For now, let’s use the worksheet containing the projections of population and population densities for 0 – 18 year olds to add some (non-geospatial) data finally to our visualization of the CYMH Service Areas. Our illustration of two mapping techniques – proportional symbol representation (for the population projections) and choropleth (for the projected population densities) – will be illustrative only.

Proportional Symbol Representation of Population Projections

We may represent the projected number of 0 – 18 year olds across all CYMH Service Areas in a given year by combining geospatial data (in the familiar TopoJSON file format) with demographic data (in .csv format):

Proportional Symbol representation of projected population of 0-18 year olds screenshot
Figure 1. Proportional symbol representation of projected population of 0 – 18 year olds across the CYMH Service Areas in 2020.

[Interactive page – try hovering the mouse over a bubble]

Choropleth Representation of Projected Population Densities

We may also represent the projected density of 0 – 18 year olds across all CYMH Service Areas in a given year by combining geospatial data (in the familiar TopoJSON file format) with demographic data (in .csv format):

Choropleth Population Density 0-18 year olds screenshot
Figure 2. Choropleth representation of projected population density of 0 – 18 year olds across the CYMH Service Areas in 2020.

[Interactive page – try hovering the mouse over a CYMH Service Area]

Next time: We’ll look at increasing user interaction with choropleths and proportional symbol representations – including animation!